Arrival Advances U.S. EV Tax Credits Plans
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British electric van company Arrival is relying on the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and a second reverse merger to give it a second chance at survival. While developing vehicles for well-known clients like United Parcel Service Inc. and Uber Technologies Inc., the company has blown through large sums of money without ever reaching mass production.

IMAGE: Arrival

Arrival will first concentrate on just one vehicle that is made in the United States using the $283 million it should get via a merger with special-purpose acquisition business Kensington Capital Acquisition Corp V. This vehicle, a larger Class 4 delivery van, or medium-duty van, will offer clients a $40,000 IRA subsidy, a significant increase above the $7,500 for smaller electric vans.

New investors in Arrival are "very excited about our U.S. product and the U.S. market," according to chief financial officer John Wozniak. "There are a lot of tailwinds there," one of which is a recent California law requiring commercial fleets to switch to electric over the following ten years. Importantly, Arrival claims that early backer UPS is still a key client — it has ordered up to 10,000 vans – despite the fact that it is undoubtedly unsatisfied after having to wait years for cars.

The IRA, which became effective in August of last year, has given Arrival enough of a lifeline to draw in new investors. Tax credits for customers who buy specific EVs are included. Wozniak stated that he is certain Arrival will meet its goal of starting to produce its medium-duty XL Van at a "micro-factory" in Charlotte, North Carolina, by the end of 2024.

At its height, Arrival was working on two distinct electric van models as well as an electric bus. Additionally, it was creating an electric vehicle just for Uber drivers. But like other electric firms that collected billions through SPACs, Arrival discovered that it is extremely expensive and difficult to move from concept to mass manufacturing. In the investor presentation for its initial SPAC agreement, the business forecast revenue of $14 billion for 2024; nonetheless, Arrival lost a cumulative $2.3 billion in 2021–2022.

Arrival reduced workforce by roughly 75% to 750 people in order to save money. In a sector where the cost of introducing a single model may easily exceed $1 billion, it had only $130 million in cash at the end of the first quarter. The business issued a warning in November that it would run out of money before 2023 was out. The second SPAC for Arrival is with Kensington, a company whose past agreements helped businesses including QuantumScape, Amprius, and Wallbox into the market.

There are only a few competitors left for Arrival since that is too small for the majority of major manufacturers. The market for medium-duty electric vehicles might be worth $5 billion or more, with price tags expected to start at roughly $175,000. According to CFO Wozniak, "We believe that (Class 4) is a sweet spot where Arrival can make a lot of money." We surveyed the marketplace for competitors and found that there was plenty of space to grow in that market.

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